Cap might be worse than expected.

[Majsheppard 203]

I was reading an Mlive article and poll about who the Wings might use their two compliance buyouts on. They talked about maybe Bertuzzi, Sammuelson, and perhaps Tootoo as they didn't get playoff time and their contracts are pretty awful.

I started to look into it, because I was thinking that they could bury the contracts in the AHL with better results. I was right about that, but found something which surprised me and made the Mlive article moot.

Cap hits of a compliance buyout MUST be 3 million or more! This means Bertuzzi and Tootoo would not be eligible for it. In fact only Zetter, Pavel, Franzen, Quincey, Ericsson, Kronner, Sammuelson, and Howard would be eligible for it. The others could go through normal buyout procedure but they would count against the cap.

Obviously Zetter, Pavel, Franzen, Kronner, and Howard aren't going to be bought out. Only Sammy is realistic in my mind. Doing this research I think they definitely will buy him out with a compliance. They have to because I went through and put together a cap roster that has what I consider to be high end realistic cap numbers for the RFA players. Some of these players could realistically get more, including Brunner who might go to another team for bigger money. I also used the cheapest methods to clear the older parts that might not contriubte to the team. This gave me a 22-man roster that doesn't Include Val or Cleary.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Best Guess
FORWARDS
Justin Abdelkader ($1.800m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Johan Franzen ($3.955m)
Gustav Nyquist ($3.000m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Damien Brunner ($4.000m)
Tomas Tatar ($0.840m) / Darren Helm ($2.125m) / Patrick Eaves ($1.200m)
Cory Emmerton ($0.533m) / Joakim Andersson ($1.200m) / Drew Miller ($1.200m)
DEFENSEMEN
Niklas Kronwall ($4.750m) / Danny DeKeyser ($1.350m)
Jakub Kindl ($3.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($3.250m)
Kyle Quincey ($3.775m) / Brendan Smith ($3.000m)
Brian Lashoff ($0.725m) / Carlo Colaiacovo ($2.500m)
GOALTENDERS
Jimmy Howard ($5.292m)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Mikael Samuelsson ($0.000m)
Buried: Todd Bertuzzi ($1.150m)
Buyout: Jordin Tootoo ($0.567m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,744,545; BONUSES: $1,010,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,565,455

The most notable thing is that this only leaves 1.565 Million in cap space... with Pavel due a massive raise the following year along with others. I cannot see how to keep Tootoo (not that I want to keep him, I hate him) or Val. There could be trades to thin out the Defense in exchange for more cap space, but I do not think the Wings are going to bail on Quincey after the first round pick, Smith is too young to decide on, and you need all the rest of the guys just to be okay.

I also considered buying out Gustavsson, which would still count against the cap... so burying the contract is a better option as he is over 26 and by rule 1/3 of his contract would count against the cap this year and 1/3 would count next year. Sending him down to back up Mrazek would save 925k of cap space which would up the cap to 2.49 Million but then you would either need to bring Mrazek up, which I don't see them doing yet, or sign someone else. They might possibly even sign McCollum to a 1 year deal at minimum which is 550k or more for a vet, and not play him often. This would deduct the cap space spent on a backup from 1.5 million to 1.05 million, saving only 450k. A buyout would cost the Wings 500k this year and 500k next year, which could be crucial. Clearly if they are going to get rid of him, it will be via sending him down... which could create troubles if they need to call someone up. Will the Wings be that desperate for money?

The funny thing is there was a Freep list of potential targets in free agency. Even if all the players listed were signed for much less, I still don't see it possible for them to go and add people. At the very best I could see them adding someone for 2 million or upwards of 5 million if they short others SEVERELY. I do not see anyone that could help the team enough to be had in that range. They will likely sit on the money, add just one depth guy, or maybe bring back Cleary for depth on the cheap. They might short the RFAs 400k collectively and keep Tootoo, but I hope not. If they do, it will be extremely tight and they might even lose Pavel the following year. Though they would likely lose someone else.

Here is the current cap situation without any signings or buyouts.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
Before any moves.
FORWARDS
Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Mikael Samuelsson ($3.000m)
Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Todd Bertuzzi ($2.075m)
Darren Helm ($2.125m) / Jordin Tootoo ($1.900m)
Cory Emmerton ($0.533m) / Justin Abdelkader ($1.800m)
Patrick Eaves ($1.200m)
Tomas Tatar ($0.840m)
DEFENSEMEN
Niklas Kronwall ($4.750m) / Kyle Quincey ($3.775m)
Jonathan Ericsson ($3.250m) / Carlo Colaiacovo ($2.500m)
Danny DeKeyser ($1.350m) / Brian Lashoff ($0.725m)
GOALTENDERS
Jimmy Howard ($5.292m)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $53,352,879; BONUSES: $1,010,000
CAP SPACE (19-man roster): $11,957,121

I wrote this whole thing for one reason, to illustrate that with a weak market and the cap restriction, the Wings might have to make tough choices and not add anyone for two years minimum without clearing much more space.

I do not pretend to know what they are going to do but it seems very likely that they are going to have to buyout Sammy.

Finally, it might be the Wings MO to do right by the players and not bury them in the AHL. If that is the case, then Bertuzzi will most likely be bought out and cost 1 million against the cap this year and next, out of principle. Tootoo might cost them 950k over the next four years. The Monster, who was awful, could cost them 750k over the next two years against the cap. This is why I screamed my head off when they signed these contracts. This is why I am worried our progress will be 100% farm based for the next few years. Not that this is a bad thing, just wanted to make this established in our minds, as I haven't seen any journalists who cover the Wings properly paint this picture.

At least we didn't give up a 6th rounder and 4 million for Sergei Gonchar... Maybe there is more reason to keep trusting in Holland.

[Guest Crymson]

Bertuzzi does not need to be bought out if he remains on LTIR for the season. Tootoo's cap hit is miniscule; a buyout would put the Wings on the hook for a whopping (sarc) $566,667 for the next four seasons.

As for your salaries, I'm not sure in which universe Brunner will get $4m, Nyquist $3m, or Kindl $3.25m. It certainly isn't the one in which we reside.

Edited June 11, 2013 by Crymson

[Guest The Axe]

This is why the capgeek thread was created!!!

[LeftWinger 5,090]

I don't know where people get the notion that these "kids" are going to top $2M, I realistically do not see any of them (sans Brunner) getting more than $1.5M each...that is a huge raise for all of them from their sub-million dollar contracts they were just on...

With the raises you gave Nyquist, Smith, Brunner & Kindl, it's no wonder your cap is worse than expected...

Edited June 11, 2013 by LeftWinger

[Majsheppard 203]

Bertuzzi does not need to be bought out if he remains on LTIR for the season. Tootoo's cap hit is miniscule; a buyout would put the Wings on the hook for a whopping (sarc) $566,667 for the next four seasons.

As for your salaries, I'm not sure in which universe Brunner will get $4m, Nyquist $3m, or Kindl $3.25m. It certainly isn't the one in which we reside.

He is healthy now, I doubt they can put him on that.

Also if you READ the whole thing, you will note I put that these are realistic figures based upon what people can overpay and that they are inflated but not more than the other players already signed, but they are very generous to put across the point. Furthermore I stated that if they limit those contracts, they could get 2-5 million extra based on how stingy they are, but that this isn't going to really get us anyone special or particularly useful. In fact much of that could go to Pavel next year who could make 3 million more than he already does.

Then again, you didn't read the whole thing because you couldn't wait to open your mouth and then pat yourself on the back for being internet witty on a forum.

[kipwinger 8,732]

Yeah, I don't really expect Smith, Nyquist, or Kindl to top 1.5 million. Brunner won't top 3, and Andersson won't top 1.2 million. The bigger concern is with the number of roster spots available which dwindles to nothing the second we resign our RFAs. Sammy is an ideal buyout candidate, Gustavsson will stay and probably be better than he was, and Tootoo doesn't cost much. However, resigning Val, Cleary, and Miller will be an issue unless someone else is moved out via trade or waivers, in which case I'd imagine Emmerton would be the guy to go via waivers and (maybe) Quincey or Carlo via trade.

[Majsheppard 203]

Bertuzzi does not need to be bought out if he remains on LTIR for the season. Tootoo's cap hit is miniscule; a buyout would put the Wings on the hook for a whopping (sarc) $566,667 for the next four seasons.

As for your salaries, I'm not sure in which universe Brunner will get $4m, Nyquist $3m, or Kindl $3.25m. It certainly isn't the one in which we reside.

This is why the capgeek thread was created!!!

I don't know where people get the notion that these "kids" are going to top $2M, I realistically do not see any of them (sans Brunner) getting more than $1.5M each...that is a huge raise for all of them from their sub-million dollar contracts they were just on...

With the raises you gave Nyquist, Smith, Brunner & Kindl, it's no wonder your cap is worse than expected...

And these comments, all of which illustrate that the article was not read fully are the reason why I am never on this website anymore.

The point is that the cap is tight and this cap figure is what is to be dealt with for the next two seasons. Do not expect any signings of significance.

With that I am done with this site for another year. You can read me in my blog or just trolling.

[kipwinger 8,732]

And these comments, all of which illustrate that the article was not read fully are the reason why I am never on this website anymore.

The point is that the cap is tight and this cap figure is what is to be dealt with for the next two seasons. Do not expect any signings of significance.

With that I am done with this site for another year. You can read me in my blog or just trolling.

I agree that there probably won't be any HUGE signings, any serious changes are likely to come about via trade (if at all). But there really could be signings which have a big impact. Such as letting Filppula walk and signing Steven Weiss, who would cost about as much but scores more goals. The net effect would be roughly the same, except that we'd add another goal scoring threat to a team that desperately needs them. Ryder would do the same thing and wouldn't cost much as well. We wouldn't break the bank on them the way we would for Clarkson or Horton, but they'd probably help a ton.

Edited June 11, 2013 by kipwinger

[LeftWinger 5,090]

And these comments, all of which illustrate that the article was not read fully are the reason why I am never on this website anymore.

The point is that the cap is tight and this cap figure is what is to be dealt with for the next two seasons. Do not expect any signings of significance.

With that I am done with this site for another year. You can read me in my blog or just trolling.

but you said high end realistic cap numbers....there is nothing realistic about Nyquist getting $3M....high end realistic for Nyquist is $2M. None of those numbers are realistic high end or not... High end none of them top $2M, Brunner MIGHT get $3M.... not very realistic, but you didn't have to take your ball and go home...geez, man up.

[Guest The Axe]

but you said high end realistic cap numbers....there is nothing realistic about Nyquist getting $3M....high end realistic for Nyquist is $2M. None of those numbers are realistic high end or not... High end none of them top $2M, Brunner MIGHT get $3M.... not very realistic, but you didn't have to take your ball and go home...geez, man up.

Ha ha ha. Yah, I wasnt trying to hurt his feelings. I was just trying to consolidate.

[wingsfan4795 552]

About 1/3 of the teams will be sellers in one way or another.

1/3 of teams will be buyers in one way or another.

1/3 of the teams will more or less stand pat.

Most of the sellers are currently good teams. Most of the buyers are pretty bad right now.

I predict next year will be the most parity the NHL has ever seen as a lot of the teams will more or less even out.

[10 Minute Misconduct 104]

Anyone can be bought out the 3 million was just for this year because it buy outs wernt suppose to start til the end of the year but the NHL didn't want gomez/redden buried in the minors.

[wingsfan4795 552]

About 1/3 of the teams will be sellers in one way or another.

1/3 of teams will be buyers in one way or another.

1/3 of the teams will more or less stand pat.

Most of the sellers are currently good teams. Most of the buyers are pretty bad right now.

I predict next year will be the most parity the NHL has ever seen as a lot of the teams will more or less even out.

Btw, we will be slight buyers if anything, making us the most talented "buyers" in the league

[Jesusberg 1,256]

The thing about these "bridge deals" as folks like to call them, the ones worth 2.5-3.5 million, is that they're given out by Wings brass after a guy has proven he can play a few season in Detroit, or at least that he can contribute. Zetterberg, Filppula and Kronwall were given their 2.65, 3 and 3 million dollar deals in response to showing they're capable, or even a few 40 point seasons for the forwards I mentioned.

Brunner may be seen in a different light, but guys like Nyquist, Smith and Kindl aren't really in the same situation as other players given those "bridge deals". I imagine those guys will probably get 2-3 year deals, maybe in the area of 1.2-2.2 or so. Then go on to earn something, should they deserve it.

Edited June 11, 2013 by Jesusberg

[LeftWinger 5,090]

The thing about these "bridge deals" as folks like to call them, the ones worth 2.5-3.5 million, is that they're given out by Wings brass after a guy has proven he can play a few season in Detroit, or at least that he can contribute. Zetterberg, Filppula and Kronwall were given their 2.65, 3 and 3 million dollar deals in response to showing they're capable, or even a few 40 point seasons for the forwards I mentioned.

Brunner may be seen in a different light, but guys like Nyquist, Smith and Kindl aren't really in the same situation as other players given those "bridge deals". I imagine those guys will probably get 2-3 year deals, maybe in the area of 1.2-2.2 or so. Then go on to earn something, should they deserve it.

Now that is realistic! Thank you.

[Jesusberg 1,256]

Now that is realistic! Thank you.

I have to admit, though... that I wouldn't be shocked if Kindl was given a little more. If you consider his age, his play this season and it being his 3rd (I think?) contract... he's in a very similar situation as Ericsson was when he signed his deal. Andersson, Nyquist and Smith should all be given in the area of 1.2-1.8 or so, but it wouldn't shock me to see them reward Kindl with a little more.

A lot of us thought Ericsson's deal was awful (myself included), but he's shown he's a capable top 4 player. I guess we'll see how it pans out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Kindl grab something like 2.5-2.8 or so.

[FlashyG 1,799]

I agree on Brunner and possibly on Smith, but I think Colaiacovo's salary will inflate the asking price of both RFA defenceman.

They were both ahead of him on the depth chart and are likely to be ahead of him again next season and any decent agent will push to have them compensated accordingly.

The can probably get a discount on Smith, because as Jesusberg pointed out he hasn't really been in the league long enough to earn it, but Kindl might even be eligible for arbitration and if he goes that route he'll get paid.

[Spongewingredpants 75]

but you said high end realistic cap numbers....there is nothing realistic about Nyquist getting $3M....high end realistic for Nyquist is $2M. None of those numbers are realistic high end or not... High end none of them top $2M, Brunner MIGHT get $3M.... not very realistic, but you didn't have to take your ball and go home...geez, man up.

Ericsson, Ericsson anybody.....

[Nev 1,085]

Just like to point out that if Sammy is on IR, then he can't be bought out. Holland said that he's doesn't need surgery now and he is re-habbing the injury. How long he stays on IR though...

Get better soon Sammy!

[LeftWinger 5,090]

I have to admit, though... that I wouldn't be shocked if Kindl was given a little more. If you consider his age, his play this season and it being his 3rd (I think?) contract... he's in a very similar situation as Ericsson was when he signed his deal. Andersson, Nyquist and Smith should all be given in the area of 1.2-1.8 or so, but it wouldn't shock me to see them reward Kindl with a little more.

A lot of us thought Ericsson's deal was awful (myself included), but he's shown he's a capable top 4 player. I guess we'll see how it pans out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Kindl grab something like 2.5-2.8 or so.

if Kindl gets an Ericsson type contract, I will seriously question Holland. That money is needed elsewhere....scoring.

[Mors 201]

I'll say right now that the idea of buying out Tootoo is completely unrealistic. Aside from the minimal cap impact, even if he doesn't play in the playoffs, there's a reason why Holland signed him to a 3 year deal. This team needs grit just to survive the regular season, and they're going into a new conference with some heavy hitters.

Sammuelsson is the most realistic candidate, especially considering his string of non-critical injuries that still managed to keep him out the lineup.

[uk_redwing 495]

With that I am done with this site for another year.

No one cares.

On the subject of Tootoo, not much to hate about him or anything that screams possible buyout. I was disappointed that MLive article even listed his name as a possibility. One of the leagues best pound-for-pound fighters, although he had a poor fighting year last season, and put up 8 points (the same as Emmerton and Miller) in 42 games (less games than Emmerton and Miller) on very limited minutes (about a third less than Emmerton and Miller).

Hopefully that's the last of that.

[puckbags 863]

but you said high end realistic cap numbers....there is nothing realistic about Nyquist getting $3M....high end realistic for Nyquist is $2M. None of those numbers are realistic high end or not... High end none of them top $2M, Brunner MIGHT get $3M.... not very realistic, but you didn't have to take your ball and go home...geez, man up.

Can you imagine if every time a member on this forum left because someone didnt like their point of view...There would only be like 2 people left here.

[Guest Crymson]

Ericsson, Ericsson anybody.....

Ericsson is a 6'5", mobile defenseman with a lot of potential. He would have been snapped up in a second on the UFA market. Kindl is still an unknown quantity.

[Guest The Axe]

Can you imagine if every time a member on this forum left because someone didnt like their point of view...There would only be like 2 people left here.

I would have lasted one post.